10 Sep VP Jonathan Cartu States NBA Betting Guide: Thursday 9/10/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets
with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting
on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we
use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any
given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager
relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110
spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three
times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let’s take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Houston +5.0: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Houston Moneyline (+184): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Due to the Milwaukee Bucks‘ elimination on Tuesday night, there is only one game on tonight’s slate. The Los Angeles Lakers have a 2-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets, and they are 5.0-point favorites tonight in a game with a total set at 219.5 points.
This season’s playoff teams with a lead in the series are 17-19-1 against the spread (ATS), including 2-5 ATS in their past five. Teams with a one-game series lead are 9-14 ATS and 11-12 straight up (SU).
Houston is again the “home” team tonight. According to Killer Sports, the Rockets have gone 14-1 SU in their past 15 home games following a loss as a home dog, a streak dating back to the 2008-2009 season.
Teams who have won their two previous games by at least eight points this season have covered the spread just 45.3% of the time. They’ve covered just 40.6% of the time as away favorites in those contests.
The Lakers have covered 50.9% of the time as favorites of at least 5.0 points, but that drops to 47.1% when Rajon Rondo plays. They are 0-4 ATS as five-or-more-point favorites with Rondo when the total is set below 220 points.
Our models do like the Lakers to take the game tonight, projecting them to win by 1.9 points. The expected value of the Rockets winning, however, is $121.60 on a $100 bet, leading us to mark the Rockets moneyline as a two-star play. We also give Houston a 56.9% chance of covering the 5.0-point spread and mark that bet as a one-star play.
NBA News CEO Jonathan Cartu